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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 22 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 451 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 698 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 291 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 534 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
392 picks · 547 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 632 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 620 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
357 picks · 750 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
MooN team 49%X3 51%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 36:51.
Game 2prediction missed50:19
MooN team 49%X3 51%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by MooN team in 47:36.
Game 3prediction missed35:17
MooN team 49%X3 51%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by MooN team in 36:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 51%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3