Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 437 bans
Mars
462 picks · 687 bans
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 541 bans
Bane
423 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 595 bans
Storm Spirit
358 picks · 578 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 649 bans
Sand King
335 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% MooN team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
MooN team 63%YNT 37%
The model gave 63% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 40:37.
Game 2prediction correct28:12
MooN team 63%YNT 37%
The model gave 63% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 28:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 63%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2