Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zorka Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Zorka Gaming
Tinysignature
OneJey · 8 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Arti_Shock · 6 games
Linasignature
Miyaoo · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Sven
dizzying · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
Arti_Shock · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
615 picks · 474 bans
Marci
457 picks · 675 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 548 bans
Puck
377 picks · 834 bans
Winter Wyvern
320 picks · 403 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 479 bans
Zeus
268 picks · 353 bans
Dazzle
263 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Zorka Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:10
MooN team 42%Zorka Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by MooN team in 22:07.
Game 2prediction missed33:17
MooN team 42%Zorka Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by MooN team in 32:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteZorka Gaming · 58%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2