BetBoom Streamers Battle х Динамо 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Morphilina Teamloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Stray Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Morphilina Team
Alchemist
DM · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
arteezysbastark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
DM · 1 game
Tusk
arteezysbastark · 1 game
Viper
arteezysbastark · 1 game
Void Spirit
arteezysbastark · 1 game
Stray Team
Dark Willow
lowkez · 4 games
Muerta
Retsu · 4 games
Rubick
lowkez · 4 games
Slardar
Stray · 4 games
Weaver
Retsu · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Vovapain · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
Legion Commander
DkFogas · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
421 picks · 392 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 197 bans
Puck
343 picks · 894 bans
Pugna
316 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 228 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 676 bans
Queen of Pain
273 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Stray Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:19
Morphilina Team 46%Stray Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 16:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painarteezysbastark
Phantom LancerRetsu
DoomDM
PudgeDkFogas
54% · 112 games
Dragon KnightStray
44% · 5 games
Winter WyvernStint
50% · 92 games
WarlockVovapain
Game 2prediction correct7:23
Morphilina Team 47%Stray Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 20:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackDM
Phantom LancerRetsu
Magnusarteezysbastark
PudgeDkFogas
43% · 68 games
Queen of PainStray
45% · 106 games
LichVovapain
57% · 3 games
Winter WyvernStint
Model check result
Model favoriteStray Team · 59%
Series resultStray Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2