DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mosquito Clanloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PPPerrito Panzonwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mosquito Clan
Muerta
Yadomi · 5 games
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
payk · 2 games
Marcioften banned
payk · 2 games
Perrito Panzon
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
K1 · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
K1 · 2 games
Silencer
MoOz · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
K1 · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
Axe
ILICH- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
550 picks · 782 bans
Muerta
448 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
438 picks · 711 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
408 picks · 726 bans
Bristleback
396 picks · 897 bans
Magnus
396 picks · 1060 bans
Pangolier
382 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:22
Mosquito Clan 48%Perrito Panzon 52%
The model gave 52% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPiPi
Wraith KingK1
Doompayk
BristlebackILICH-
BeastmasterVitaly
TinyDarkMago
RingmasterYadomi
PhoenixMoOz
Night StalkerMichael
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
Game 2prediction correct12:31
Mosquito Clan 47%Perrito Panzon 53%
The model gave 53% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursapayk
BristlebackILICH-
Dark SeerVitaly
TidehunterK1
Storm SpiritPiPi
Ember SpiritDarkMago
RingmasterYadomi
PhoenixMoOz
Night StalkerMichael
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 55%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2