?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 1:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
20Twiceloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 11 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 10 games
80%

20Twice

Mars
Marsoften banned
meLes · 5 games
20%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
meLes · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dominic · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
meLes · 2 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
741 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 641 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 278 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1186 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 700 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 454 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
423 picks · 270 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
371 picks · 238 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Most Wanted 80%20Twice 20%
The model gave 80% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted.
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 80%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1