DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusk
Ponlo · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
423 · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 3 games
Iooften banned
Rein · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
692 picks · 336 bans
Disruptor
575 picks · 610 bans
Hoodwink
470 picks · 250 bans
Puck
397 picks · 1133 bans
Mars
392 picks · 670 bans
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
366 picks · 370 bans
Pugna
339 picks · 388 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:44
Most Wanted 51%4Pirates 49%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor423
Ursazvёzd
Puckniche
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
SlardarfortniteMan
Tidehunterмистер мораль
VenomancerRein
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
RingmasterPonlo
Batriderariel
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Most Wanted 53%4Pirates 47%
The model gave 53% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight423
Templar Assassinzvёzd
Ember Spiritniche
PangolierNattyNarwhal
BristlebackfortniteMan
Doomмистер мораль
ChenRein
Hoodwinkariel
DisruptorPonlo
TuskPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct31:11
Most Wanted 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon423
Troll Warlordzvёzd
Pangolierniche
HuskarNattyNarwhal
MarcifortniteMan
Axeмистер мораль
Ancient ApparitionPonlo
Skywrath Mageariel
BaneRein
OraclePERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 52%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3