DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 10 games
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 8 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
Rein · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Marcioften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 38 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 38 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 35 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
723 picks · 346 bans
Disruptor
596 picks · 632 bans
Hoodwink
505 picks · 258 bans
Puck
422 picks · 1173 bans
Mars
417 picks · 693 bans
Tusk
416 picks · 260 bans
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 420 bans
Jakiro
357 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Most Wanted
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:57
Most Wanted 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter423
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Pangolierniche
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
SnapfirePonlo
Underlordмистер мораль
SlardarfortniteMan
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
TuskRein
Spirit Breakerariel
Game 2prediction correct27:9
Most Wanted 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracniche
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Terrorblade423
Tidehunterмистер мораль
BristlebackfortniteMan
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
PugnaRein
Hoodwinkariel
DisruptorPonlo
OmniknightPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct43:44
Most Wanted 56%4Pirates 44%
The model gave 56% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 58:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetniche
Alchemistzvёzd
TidehunterfortniteMan
PuckNattyNarwhal
Sven423
Underlordмистер мораль
SnapfireRein
Bounty Hunterariel
LionPonlo
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 62%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3