DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Batrideroften banned
423 · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 2 games
Iooften banned
Rein · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
niche · 2 games
Tusk
Ponlo · 2 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
685 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 598 bans
Hoodwink
460 picks · 237 bans
Mars
386 picks · 660 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1115 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:42
Most Wanted 38%Kalmychata 62%
The model gave 62% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 48:03.
Game 2prediction correct20:35
Most Wanted 38%Kalmychata 62%
The model gave 62% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 39:38.
Game 3prediction correct11:28
Most Wanted 38%Kalmychata 62%
The model gave 62% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 62%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3