?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 12 games
67%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 29 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 18 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 16 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
755 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 630 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
447 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
444 picks · 498 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 1182 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 722 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 251 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:22
Most Wanted 52%Pipsqueak+4 48%
The model gave 52% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendniche
51% · 112 games48% · 9 games
KezNande
Kez
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker423
50% · 26 games49% · 92 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
49% · 168 games51% · 175 games
TimbersawCopy
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaRein
49% · 165 games47% · 213 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPonlo
48% · 173 games56% · 155 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 2prediction missed11:27
Most Wanted 53%Pipsqueak+4 47%
The model gave 53% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
51% · 178 games44% · 80 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
51% · 322 games44% · 326 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordfortniteMan
58% · 83 games59% · 19 games
ViperPalantimos
Viper
Batrider
BatriderPonlo
51% · 290 games56% · 129 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerRein
49% · 41 game46% · 360 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed17:28
Most Wanted 54%Pipsqueak+4 46%
The model gave 54% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracniche
51% · 186 games43% · 301 game
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Abaddon
Abaddon423
50% · 328 games53% · 285 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
48% · 264 games58% · 100 games
Night StalkerPalantimos
Night Stalker
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
50% · 229 games48% · 359 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Lion
LionPonlo
53% · 231 game48% · 193 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 55%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3