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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 12 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 12 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 11 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 11 games
73%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 54 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 52 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 47 games
66%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 40 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
742 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 637 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
535 picks · 284 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 1186 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 261 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 462 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
424 picks · 704 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
379 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:22
Most Wanted 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
51% · 158 games56% · 71 game
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
46% · 288 games56% · 122 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
51% · 239 games46% · 351 game
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePonlo
38% · 46 games52% · 250 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
50% · 146 games50% · 83 games
Crystal MaidenHduo
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct33:29
Most Wanted 51%Runa Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon423
57% · 255 games44% · 88 games
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Troll Warlord
Puck
Puckniche
55% · 379 games45% · 325 games
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
Marci
MarcifortniteMan
48% · 234 games55% · 222 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Dazzle
DazzleRein
51% · 111 games45% · 238 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Lion
LionPonlo
52% · 136 games47% · 242 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 55%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2