European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 19 games
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 18 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 16 games
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 10 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
Sand King
mellojul · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
614 picks · 598 bans
Snapfire
601 picks · 241 bans
Dragon Knight
546 picks · 717 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 320 bans
Hoodwink
500 picks · 253 bans
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 552 bans
Mars
436 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
431 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Most Wanted
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:22
Most Wanted 59%Team Lynx 41%
The model gave 59% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter423
Troll Warlord7jesu
Ember Spiritniche
Tinymellojul
BristlebackCloud
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Bounty HunterPonlo
DisruptorUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct40:23
Most Wanted 57%Team Lynx 43%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger423
Gyrocopter7jesu
Ember Spiritniche
Tinymellojul
AxeCloud
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
PugnaUndyne_
TuskPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 62%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2