PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMmotisloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
motis
No games played over 6 months.
Looking for Org
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Matthew · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 1 game
Earthshaker
PiPi · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 1 game
Lich
Yadomi · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
443 picks · 359 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 469 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 586 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 563 bans
Phoenix
347 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
motis 34%Looking for Org 66%
The model gave 66% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Game 2prediction correct
motis 34%Looking for Org 66%
The model gave 66% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 66%
Series resultLooking for Org 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2