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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 17 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 11 games
91%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
boombell · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 8 games
63%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
56%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
261 picks · 434 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 344 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 245 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
237 picks · 496 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 32%
Hero pool strength64% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total81% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Motivate.Trust Gaming 68%Army Geniuses 32%
The model gave 68% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
47% · 46 games48% · 44 games
Svendb-
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracFearless
55% · 60 games47% · 34 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingQ
60% · 79 games46% · 26 games
VenomancerwoMy
Venomancer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonboombell
51% · 45 games44% · 126 games
PangolierLym-
Pangolier
Game 2prediction correct46:31
Motivate.Trust Gaming 66%Army Geniuses 34%
The model gave 66% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 49:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
52% · 54 games48% · 60 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
Lina
LinaFearless
52% · 54 games52% · 147 games
Leshracdb-
Leshrac
Mars
MarsQ
50% · 134 games70% · 27 games
Vengeful SpiritwoMy
Vengeful Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierboombell
40% · 103 games48% · 111 games
Monkey KingLym-
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 81%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2