Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Bane
boombell · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
Army Geniuses
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
Snapfire
Lym- · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Weaversignature
Varizh · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 262 bans
Mars
398 picks · 545 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 607 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 361 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 389 bans
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 394 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 450 bans
Templar Assassin
263 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total51% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Motivate.Trust Gaming 49%Army Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 43:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritFearless
Lifestealerdb-
Baneboombell
RazorwoMy
48% · 175 games
Storm SpiritAzur4
47% · 77 games
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
58% · 122 games
AbaddonVarizh
Game 2prediction missed28:46
Motivate.Trust Gaming 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 48:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritFearless
PuckAzur4
Nyx Assassinboombell
Sniperdb-
53% · 125 games
PangolierwoMy
44% · 103 games
GrimstrokeNARMAN
60% · 6 games
LichVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 51%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2