Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilgunwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Bane
boombell · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
441 picks · 267 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
327 picks · 410 bans
Death Prophet
312 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 324 bans
Queen of Pain
295 picks · 462 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 375 bans
Kunkka
267 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
Motivate.Trust Gaming 42%Lilgun 58%
The model gave 58% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 32:26.
Game 2prediction missed24:3
Motivate.Trust Gaming 42%Lilgun 58%
The model gave 58% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 21:15.
Game 3prediction correct19:36
Motivate.Trust Gaming 42%Lilgun 58%
The model gave 58% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 36:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 58%
Series resultLilgun 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3