BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lionsignature
Q · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Q · 9 games
Polaris Esports
Lion
cml · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Mirana
Boomy · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 4 games
Silenceroften banned
cml · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 3 games
Bane
cml · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 109 bans
Lina
262 picks · 505 bans
Mars
259 picks · 416 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 348 bans
Luna
240 picks · 332 bans
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 236 bans
Nyx Assassin
223 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Motivate.Trust Gaming 59%Polaris Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerJaCkky
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Ember SpiritFearless
Death ProphetMac
DawnbreakerQ
MarsForce
Lionboombell
GrimstrokeBoomy
47% · 90 games
Gyrocoptercml
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Polaris Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJaCkky
LifestealerNatsumi
Void SpiritFearless
Death ProphetForce
LionQ
Ember SpiritMac
Abaddonboombell
PangolierBoomy
54% · 177 games
Miranacml
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 65%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2