DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMMousesloss 0:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GRIN esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mouses
No games played over 6 months.
GRIN esports
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Axe
Moo · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Legion Commander
Moo · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 276 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 453 bans
Rubick
320 picks · 310 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
Windranger
304 picks · 424 bans
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 469 bans
Enchantress
296 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Mouses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Mouses 39%GRIN esports 61%
The model gave 61% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 61%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1