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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 12 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 9 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 8 games
50%

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 384 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
315 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
315 picks · 710 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
308 picks · 569 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 436 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total59% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:27
MOUZ 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother423
56% · 66 games48% · 244 games
DoomMunkushi~
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBOOM
49% · 180 games48% · 184 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawSupream^
51% · 145 games46% · 89 games
UndyingSSS
Undying
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
54% · 149 games47% · 147 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
56% · 245 games48% · 121 game
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct32:35
MOUZ 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
49% · 173 games51% · 245 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
52% · 160 games53% · 152 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
56% · 210 games54% · 91 game
UndyingSSS
Undying
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
43% · 233 games51% · 144 games
Pugnakasane
Pugna
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSeleri
37% · 11 games44% · 155 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 59%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2