BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 45 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 44 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 44 games
Pudge
yamich · 44 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 44 games
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 39 games
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 38 games
1w Team
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 32 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 30 games
Warlock
Rein · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 28 games
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 24 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
678 picks · 843 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 578 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1147 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 691 bans
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MOUZ 59%1w Team 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 2prediction missed39:38
MOUZ 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 1w Team in 53:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierLorenof
PuckSquad1x
BrewmasterBOOM
Bristlebackv1olent-
RazorCrystallis
Doomмистер мораль
Jakiroaik
PugnaRein
Hoodwinkyamich
Rubickswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2