CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 8 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 26 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
Tinysignature
Otaker · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
534 picks · 558 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 515 bans
Terrorblade
323 picks · 715 bans
Dark Willow
320 picks · 197 bans
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 589 bans
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 439 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 66%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:14
MOUZ 51%4Pirates 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo423
LeshracNattyNarwhal
TimbersawBOOM
BeastmasterOtaker
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Abaddonмистер мораль
Primal BeastSupream^
Pugnaariel
Dark WillowThiolicor
MarciPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed12:43
MOUZ 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter423
Queen of PainOtaker
UndyingBOOM
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
TinySupream^
Pangolierмистер мораль
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Snapfireariel
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct37:21
MOUZ 51%4Pirates 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
WindrangerOtaker
PangolierBOOM
PuckNattyNarwhal
Monkey KingSupream^
Timbersawмистер мораль
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
UndyingSeleri
Baneariel
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3