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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASAKURAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 22 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 22 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
41%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
91%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
509 picks · 732 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 799 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
482 picks · 483 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
428 picks · 1031 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 935 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:15
MOUZ 61%ASAKURA 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLowskill
49% · 128 games50% · 97 games
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Phantom Assassin
Huskar
HuskarCopy
47% · 22 games49% · 87 games
EarthshakerSerenada
Earthshaker
Magnus
MagnusForce
55% · 152 games45% · 51 game
AbaddonVladikTheHtiviy
Abaddon
Weaver
WeaverLelis
51% · 100 games49% · 41 game
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Shadow Shaman
Dazzle
DazzleFly
49% · 10 games51% · 136 games
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed26:43
MOUZ 61%ASAKURA 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLowskill
46% · 68 games45% · 84 games
Marci7jesu
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
49% · 248 games53% · 173 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Dazzle
DazzleForce
58% · 35 games57% · 110 games
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Dark Seer
Night Stalker
Night StalkerLelis
46% · 97 games50% · 128 games
Muertaslimeyao
Muerta
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
51% · 241 game50% · 194 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct37:14
MOUZ 61%ASAKURA 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
54% · 138 games49% · 274 games
Tiny7jesu
Tiny
Ursa
UrsaLowskill
55% · 108 games50% · 175 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarForce
48% · 84 games50% · 76 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 254 games43% · 42 games
WarlockVaniLLl
Warlock
Night Stalker
Night StalkerLelis
50% · 97 games46% · 114 games
Muertaslimeyao
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 67%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3