European Pro League Season 24 · BO5
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:3series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:3
ASAKURAwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 26 games
Clockwerk
Fly · 22 games
Tusk
xsvampire · 22 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 10 games
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 9 games
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
young G · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
513 picks · 734 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 801 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 540 bans
Muerta
442 picks · 381 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 1045 bans
Bristleback
410 picks · 943 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 766 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% ASAKURA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
MOUZ 56%ASAKURA 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Slark7jesu
LeshracCopy
EarthshakerSerenada
SlardarForce
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
WeaverLelis
Rubickslimeyao
JakiroSe
SilencerVaniLLl
Game 2prediction missed29:35
MOUZ 60%ASAKURA 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeLowskill
Morphling7jesu
Ember SpiritCopy
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
WeaverLelis
EarthshakerSerenada
TidehunterForce
Leshracslimeyao
Shadow ShamanImmortalFaith
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Game 3prediction correct30:9
MOUZ 58%ASAKURA 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Slark7jesu
HuskarCopy
Monkey KingSerenada
Ember SpiritForce
Legion CommanderVladikTheHtiviy
MiranaLelis
Rubickslimeyao
JakiroFly
DazzleVaniLLl
Game 4prediction missed28:43
MOUZ 58%ASAKURA 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 1:05:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherForce
Storm SpiritSerenada
TinyLowskill
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
EarthshakerCopy
Slark7jesu
AbaddonFly
JakiroVaniLLl
RubickLelis
Leshracslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultASAKURA 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4