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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 36 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 32 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 2 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 2 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Q · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Oli · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 640 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 371 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 434 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 522 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 406 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 563 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
297 picks · 112 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:17
MOUZ 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlnit
48% · 152 games51% · 227 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierForce
47% · 218 games44% · 112 games
Keeper of the LightLorenof
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSupream^
53% · 52 games53% · 28 games
ViperJabz
Viper
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
49% · 155 games49% · 159 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
62% · 13 games59% · 64 games
IoOli
Io
Game 2prediction correct15:32
MOUZ 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUlnit
48% · 117 games51% · 75 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
51% · 180 games47% · 123 games
Keeper of the LightLorenof
Keeper of the Light
Pangolier
PangolierForce
50% · 281 game49% · 145 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
52% · 135 games49% · 173 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
54% · 16 games51% · 213 games
Crystal MaidenOli
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 59%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2