?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 47 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
35%

AVULUS

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 5 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Smiling Knight · 5 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 380 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 446 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 857 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 523 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 754 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 253 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
MOUZ 44%AVULUS 56%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
48% · 122 games49% · 35 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Puck
PuckSupream^
51% · 211 games49% · 148 games
Templar Assassinряф^^
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
51% · 206 games54% · 303 games
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
52% · 201 game44% · 256 games
RubickEkki
Rubick
Omniknight
Omniknightbengan
61% · 28 games41% · 26 games
SilencerSoNNeikO
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct9:16
MOUZ 40%AVULUS 60%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerUlnit
52% · 187 games45% · 137 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
52% · 298 games55% · 153 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Alchemist
AlchemistForce
43% · 164 games51% · 315 games
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNARMAN
43% · 270 games54% · 97 games
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
Naga Siren
Abaddon
Abaddonbengan
51% · 40 games55% · 257 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct24:35
MOUZ 42%AVULUS 58%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackUlnit
52% · 36 games58% · 116 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Sniper
SniperSupream^
46% · 53 games46% · 51 game
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Doom
DoomForce
48% · 148 games53% · 74 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
47% · 198 games47% · 140 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
50% · 24 games53% · 78 games
AlchemistEkki
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 63%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3