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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
27%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 17 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
393 picks · 354 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 176 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 865 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
298 picks · 345 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
283 picks · 248 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 128 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 684 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:4
MOUZ 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 23:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
49% · 163 games53% · 292 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
48% · 142 games46% · 291 game
PuckLorenof
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
53% · 323 games44% · 148 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batrideryamich
51% · 370 games52% · 246 games
PhoenixEkki
Phoenix
Chen
ChenSeleri
60% · 137 games44% · 158 games
SilencerJANTER
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed6:25
MOUZ 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
54% · 122 games43% · 271 game
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerMidOne
46% · 184 games55% · 123 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
54% · 129 games47% · 185 games
AbaddonSmiling Knight
Abaddon
Batrider
Batrideryamich
47% · 411 games49% · 211 games
PugnaJANTER
Pugna
Undying
UndyingSeleri
52% · 119 games52% · 175 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 3prediction missed35:30
MOUZ 57%AVULUS 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMidOne
53% · 269 games54% · 219 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Abaddon
AbaddonBOOM
42% · 150 games49% · 224 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 248 games50% · 145 games
UndyingSabeRLight-
Undying
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
56% · 231 game54% · 216 games
DisruptorEkki
Disruptor
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
42% · 259 games53% · 353 games
ClockwerkJANTER
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3