CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 37 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 32 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
DMS
Jakiro
aik · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
416 picks · 307 bans
Hoodwink
411 picks · 433 bans
Tiny
394 picks · 893 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 822 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 520 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 712 bans
Clockwerk
348 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:11
MOUZ 55%DMS 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaUlnit
Pangoliermellojul
LeshracSupream^
SlarkShigetsu
BrewmasterBOOM
AbaddonDaxak
HoodwinkNARMAN
Enchantressaik
Jakirobengan
Windrangerprblms
Game 2prediction correct29:20
MOUZ 57%DMS 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzUlnit
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Primal BeastSupream^
Ember Spiritmellojul
Dark SeerBOOM
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
TinkerNARMAN
Crystal Maidenaik
Clockwerkbengan
Marciprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2