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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 41 game
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
51%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 35 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 34 games
59%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 33 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 22 games
36%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
355 picks · 407 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 257 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 511 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
282 picks · 254 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 363 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 457 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
MOUZ 63%Dragon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
51% · 160 games53% · 29 games
Lone Druidlil pleb
Lone Druid
Windranger
WindrangerUlnit
48% · 122 games53% · 268 games
KunkkaInfernal
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
49% · 226 games46% · 94 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
44% · 147 games55% · 214 games
Miranaarmageddon
Mirana
Clockwerk
Clockwerkbengan
47% · 106 games54% · 156 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct22:6
MOUZ 68%Dragon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
53% · 255 games50% · 202 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSupream^
45% · 126 games51% · 204 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
47% · 248 games52% · 145 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
46% · 219 games47% · 239 games
Batriderarmageddon
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorbengan
58% · 116 games51% · 174 games
ClockwerkMary_y
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2