Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 36 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 29 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 29 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 28 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 20 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 696 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 615 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 389 bans
Batrider
414 picks · 750 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 1040 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total73% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:40
MOUZ 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 35:25.
Game 2prediction correct19:30
MOUZ 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 73%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2