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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 53 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 40 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
68%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 30 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 30 games
70%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 27 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 22 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 17 games
59%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 585 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
568 picks · 299 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
477 picks · 297 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
476 picks · 553 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 271 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 744 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1115 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
MOUZ 74%Execration 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
54% · 326 games50% · 381 game
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
48% · 426 games50% · 463 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
52% · 198 games49% · 452 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tuskyamich
49% · 468 games54% · 178 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
48% · 377 games47% · 321 game
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 86%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1