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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 69 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 49 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 37 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 36 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 21 game
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
cml · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 973 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 627 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 477 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 261 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 561 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
MOUZ 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
48% · 423 games51% · 277 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Puck
PuckMidOne
45% · 426 games48% · 454 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsBOOM
51% · 462 games53% · 408 games
AbaddonPalos
Abaddon
Chen
ChenSeleri
53% · 270 games53% · 399 games
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 644 games50% · 687 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct31:19
MOUZ 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
58% · 209 games45% · 418 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
53% · 448 games44% · 244 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
52% · 308 games47% · 425 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
52% · 516 games47% · 93 games
Spirit BreakerShanks
Spirit Breaker
Tiny
Tinyyamich
52% · 491 game49% · 792 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2