CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LLFGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Tusk
bengan · 27 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 26 games
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 26 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
LFG
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 4 games
Dark Willow
Astral · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nizam` · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 3 games
Lich
flacko · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
476 picks · 416 bans
Clockwerk
436 picks · 566 bans
Batrider
434 picks · 534 bans
Lion
431 picks · 229 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 504 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 749 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 586 bans
Tiny
364 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 75%LFG 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
MOUZ 63%LFG 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Dragon Knightyowaai
TimbersawForce
TidehunterNorma
PangolierSupream^
Earth SpiritNizam`
Shadow DemonFly
Phoenixflacko
Magnusxsvampire
LionAstral
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 75%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2