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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 14 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 12 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 10 games
80%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
60%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 12 games
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 771 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
444 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
438 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 576 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 924 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
422 picks · 189 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:29
MOUZ 69%MarsBet Team 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
48% · 52 games45% · 59 games
LinaRetsu
Lina
Razor
RazorSupream^
53% · 115 games50% · 40 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
48% · 59 games51% · 123 games
MarsMr. Luck
Mars
Omniknight
OmniknightForce
55% · 23 games46% · 121 game
GyrocopterBignum
Gyrocopter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
51% · 167 games53% · 73 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed11:35
MOUZ 69%MarsBet Team 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
49% · 126 games42% · 47 games
LinaRetsu
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherForce
45% · 60 games52% · 262 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
53% · 107 games47% · 129 games
MarsMr. Luck
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
47% · 108 games49% · 88 games
GyrocopterBignum
Gyrocopter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
52% · 221 game56% · 96 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct19:12
MOUZ 68%MarsBet Team 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
45% · 178 games54% · 128 games
AlchemistRetsu
Alchemist
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSupream^
50% · 75 games50% · 269 games
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaForce
42% · 126 games50% · 169 games
KunkkaMr. Luck
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierNARMAN
51% · 439 games57% · 298 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
50% · 226 games51% · 180 games
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 79%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3