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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 12 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 26 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 26 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 447 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 565 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
451 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
352 picks · 713 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 727 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 491 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 256 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
293 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total74% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:28
MOUZ 36%Natus Vincere Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKami
46% · 116 games51% · 178 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
44% · 468 games56% · 397 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Axe
Axezeal
37% · 36 games57% · 211 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
52% · 390 games53% · 161 game
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Io
IoSeleri
45% · 47 games54% · 110 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed34:22
MOUZ 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAbed
47% · 158 games48% · 88 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
51% · 164 games51% · 102 games
Void SpiritNiku
Void Spirit
Undying
Undyingzeal
58% · 33 games51% · 187 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
46% · 102 games52% · 223 games
MagnusZayac
Magnus
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
51% · 273 games47% · 130 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed37:20
MOUZ 38%Natus Vincere Junior 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MOUZ in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKami
54% · 12 games50% · 83 games
Kunkkagotthejuice
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
52% · 210 games46% · 178 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Bristleback
Bristlebackzeal
61% · 241 game51% · 79 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
48% · 210 games48% · 131 game
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
46% · 57 games45% · 259 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 74%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3