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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 12 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 10 games
80%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 9 games
56%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 758 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 703 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 563 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
406 picks · 182 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
MOUZ 54%Night Pulse 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
45% · 178 games44% · 149 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
50% · 248 games49% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSupream^
50% · 33 games53% · 130 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
60% · 67 games54% · 122 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Bane
Banebengan
47% · 43 games
Game 2prediction correct48:27
MOUZ 56%Night Pulse 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
52% · 127 games50% · 105 games
LunaKami
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSupream^
46% · 148 games51% · 334 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Tiny
TinyForce
45% · 179 games45% · 107 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Leshrac
LeshracNARMAN
62% · 108 games49% · 143 games
GyrocopterJANTER
Gyrocopter
Disruptor
Disruptorbengan
52% · 127 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2