DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
No Packet Losswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
No Packet Loss
Clockwerkoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
Linaoften banned
MaTson · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Tidehunter
Infernal · 1 game
Warlockoften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
391 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 292 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 552 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 385 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 726 bans
Lion
313 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 270 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% No Packet Loss
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:31
MOUZ 57%No Packet Loss 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by No Packet Loss in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawForce
GyrocopterLowskill
TinySupream^
PuckMaTson
SpectreUlnit
BristlebackInfernal
Dark WillowDaze
Ogre MagiKidaro
LichFly
Muertaxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultNo Packet Loss 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1