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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 51 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 38 games
61%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 29 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 29 games
72%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 29 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 25 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 23 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 354 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 598 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
561 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 538 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 276 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 282 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 737 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 1125 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
MOUZ 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
51% · 315 games51% · 162 games
Shadow FiendNatsumi
Shadow Fiend
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
54% · 261 game47% · 453 games
BeastmasterYopaj
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
53% · 295 games43% · 318 games
MarsForce
Mars
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
52% · 247 games48% · 385 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskyamich
46% · 393 games55% · 193 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1