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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
OGwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
56%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 43 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 33 games
70%

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 19 games
37%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
595 picks · 929 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 420 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 653 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 937 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 651 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 529 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total50% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
MOUZ 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by OG in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
51% · 150 games44% · 67 games
WeaverNatsumi
Weaver
Puck
PuckMidOne
49% · 317 games48% · 182 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
51% · 100 games53% · 320 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingSeleri
50% · 113 games52% · 362 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
50% · 294 games52% · 43 games
Spirit BreakerTims
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 50%
Series resultOG 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1