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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 38 games
61%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 38 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 35 games
51%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 32 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
66%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 25 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 22 games
55%

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 454 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 313 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
322 picks · 373 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 268 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 406 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 454 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 488 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:17
MOUZ 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSupream^
54% · 179 games46% · 190 games
Timbersawniche
Timbersaw
Luna
LunaUlnit
55% · 289 games51% · 250 games
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
53% · 85 games50% · 178 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
49% · 179 games47% · 167 games
Enchantressflacko
Enchantress
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
46% · 53 games
Game 2prediction missed19:24
MOUZ 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Passion UA in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendUlnit
59% · 48 games52% · 137 games
Puckniche
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
41% · 159 games42% · 48 games
VisageBatyuk
Visage
Sand King
Sand KingForce
55% · 67 games51% · 90 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenbengan
59% · 74 games48% · 179 games
Doomflacko
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
45% · 106 games
Game 3prediction missed23:30
MOUZ 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerUlnit
49% · 209 games49% · 234 games
RazorBatyuk
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
48% · 236 games56% · 232 games
Puckniche
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
49% · 211 games48% · 375 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
48% · 37 games55% · 136 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
47% · 284 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 76%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3