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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
bengan · 28 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 23 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 419 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
458 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 561 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
443 picks · 557 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
428 picks · 232 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 789 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 443 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
392 picks · 826 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
MOUZ 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLowskill
46% · 23 games54% · 246 games
Magnusniche
Magnus
Tiny
TinySupream^
52% · 274 games45% · 84 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
47% · 172 games54% · 43 games
SpectreCrystallize
Spectre
Clockwerk
Clockwerkxsvampire
51% · 253 games48% · 256 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 131 game51% · 224 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed25:24
MOUZ 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLowskill
50% · 32 games48% · 315 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
50% · 205 games52% · 199 games
Puckniche
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaForce
59% · 167 games46% · 221 game
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
50% · 407 games46% · 169 games
PugnaFernans
Pugna
Magnus
Magnusxsvampire
50% · 216 games47% · 123 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed28:36
MOUZ 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Passion UA in 55:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
44% · 349 games46% · 439 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Lycan
LycanForce
57% · 58 games52% · 216 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Tiny
TinySupream^
52% · 444 games50% · 90 games
Night StalkerBatyuk
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
Clockwerkxsvampire
55% · 383 games53% · 67 games
Undyingkreker
Undying
Abaddon
AbaddonFly
34% · 22 games49% · 444 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 53%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3