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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 44 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 38 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 36 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 31 game
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 30 games
53%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
39%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 29 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 27 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 24 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 688 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 375 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 462 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
318 picks · 608 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 241 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 203 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
293 picks · 542 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
MOUZ 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
49% · 109 games49% · 214 games
SvenTA2000
Sven
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerForce
46% · 61 game49% · 184 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSupream^
57% · 255 games48% · 142 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
50% · 350 games47% · 185 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
50% · 59 games53% · 109 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct6:16
MOUZ 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaUlnit
47% · 98 games52% · 260 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
42% · 166 games59% · 255 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsForce
49% · 201 game54% · 206 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Phoenix
Phoenixbengan
46% · 228 games54% · 27 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
42% · 293 games54% · 238 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2