FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ssifr00loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
BOOM · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
sifr00
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
351 picks · 322 bans
Puck
331 picks · 828 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 152 bans
Pugna
288 picks · 323 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
Tusk
276 picks · 245 bans
Warlock
270 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Shaman
265 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% sifr00
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:4
MOUZ 89%sifr00 11%
The model gave 89% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 12:56.
Game 2prediction correct14:2
MOUZ 89%sifr00 11%
The model gave 89% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 10:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 89%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2