DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Sskibidiffloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
skibidiff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
389 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 551 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 722 bans
Lion
312 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% skibidiff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:13
MOUZ 90%skibidiff 10%
The model gave 90% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 90%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1