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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Cobrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 37 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 36 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 28 games
64%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%

Team Cobra

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
K1 · 1 game
0%
Bane
Bane
MoOz · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
K1 · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
658 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 573 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
417 picks · 223 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1156 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 635 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 260 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 40%
Hero pool strength65% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
MOUZ 81%Team Cobra 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Cobra in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
44% · 90 games57% · 94 games
MedusaK1
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
43% · 179 games57% · 110 games
TimbersawPiPi
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
43% · 124 games53% · 53 games
Night StalkerFrank
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 329 games49% · 254 games
DisruptorMoOz
Disruptor
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
55% · 67 games53% · 278 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct22:7
MOUZ 81%Team Cobra 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
54% · 241 game42% · 54 games
JuggernautK1
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
45% · 191 game53% · 178 games
TimbersawFrank
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
47% · 302 games46% · 286 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Chen
ChenSeleri
61% · 171 game52% · 251 game
SnapfireElmisho
Snapfire
Bane
Baneyamich
56% · 149 games44% · 285 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed7:33
MOUZ 81%Team Cobra 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Cobra in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
53% · 138 games44% · 58 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
43% · 251 game48% · 237 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
55% · 236 games47% · 121 game
LeshracPiPi
Leshrac
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSeleri
58% · 41 game44% · 210 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
53% · 74 games55% · 114 games
Naga SirenMoOz
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 94%
Series resultTeam Cobra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3