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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 44 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 38 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 36 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 31 game
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 29 games
55%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
39%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 30 games
53%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 28 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 678 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 458 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 599 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 352 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 198 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
308 picks · 232 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 541 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
MOUZ 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
48% · 208 games53% · 217 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUlnit
47% · 158 games50% · 137 games
Keeper of the LightNisha
Keeper of the Light
Pangolier
PangolierForce
50% · 329 games50% · 195 games
Doom33
Doom
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
52% · 39 games51% · 177 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
50% · 205 games50% · 213 games
SveniNSaNiA
Sven
Game 2prediction correct28:25
MOUZ 33%Team Liquid 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUlnit
44% · 81 game46% · 136 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSupream^
51% · 39 games51% · 65 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerForce
42% · 51 game47% · 96 games
Doom33
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenixbengan
49% · 227 games61% · 145 games
SnapfireiNSaNiA
Snapfire
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
62% · 64 games49% · 20 games
Nyx AssassinBoxi
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2