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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 73 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 40 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 37 games
68%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 26 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 24 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 999 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 445 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 502 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 630 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
453 picks · 1071 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
447 picks · 284 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 588 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
416 picks · 502 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
MOUZ 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
62% · 221 game45% · 238 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
55% · 162 games53% · 73 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMidOne
44% · 125 games45% · 58 games
LargoAce
Largo
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
50% · 93 games46% · 333 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Marci
Marciyamich
51% · 168 games48% · 67 games
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct21:31
MOUZ 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
47% · 115 games54% · 205 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMidOne
40% · 296 games53% · 171 game
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
52% · 227 games53% · 227 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
47% · 204 games55% · 205 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoryamich
58% · 77 games41% · 111 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct14:26
MOUZ 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezCrystallis
46% · 74 games49% · 425 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
51% · 329 games54% · 123 games
RazorAce
Razor
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
55% · 186 games47% · 260 games
SlardarNisha
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
45% · 495 games48% · 309 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
55% · 63 games54% · 30 games
Earth SpiritBoxi
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3