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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 59 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 38 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 34 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 31 game
74%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 29 games
48%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 47 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 30 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
72%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 27 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
74%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
649 picks · 691 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 452 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
502 picks · 423 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 438 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 289 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 1118 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 872 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 185 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
MOUZ 34%Team Liquid 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
51% · 203 games50% · 382 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
52% · 405 games47% · 316 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
54% · 344 games51% · 380 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
Earthshakeryamich
47% · 133 games53% · 68 games
VenomancertOfu
Venomancer
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
47% · 337 games47% · 276 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct19:35
MOUZ 34%Team Liquid 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
48% · 190 games50% · 276 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
48% · 534 games52% · 410 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
56% · 156 games50% · 317 games
PangolierAce
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskaik
47% · 729 games53% · 362 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
47% · 355 games50% · 599 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct18:30
MOUZ 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
59% · 136 games46% · 134 games
HuskarNisha
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
57% · 258 games51% · 391 game
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
51% · 261 game50% · 367 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
52% · 278 games50% · 335 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Tusk
Tuskyamich
47% · 405 games37% · 111 games
Spirit BreakerEkki
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3