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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 58 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 39 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshrac
MidOne · 34 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 32 games
72%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 30 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 30 games
50%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 17 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 17 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
636 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 395 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
411 picks · 369 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1081 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 815 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:48
MOUZ 58%Team Lynx 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCrystallis
45% · 137 games44% · 295 games
Beastmastermellojul
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
43% · 213 games59% · 53 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
50% · 174 games50% · 160 games
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Underlord
Enchantress
Enchantressaik
49% · 83 games57% · 70 games
Venomancerkreker
Venomancer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
56% · 49 games54% · 78 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct42:23
MOUZ 57%Team Lynx 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLorenof
48% · 535 games54% · 136 games
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Underlord
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
57% · 87 games55% · 64 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Enigma
EnigmaBOOM
41% · 75 games51% · 386 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batrideraik
50% · 262 games45% · 201 game
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
47% · 114 games55% · 286 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct34:17
MOUZ 59%Team Lynx 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
35% · 14 games53% · 138 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
53% · 374 games51% · 112 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsBOOM
43% · 328 games50% · 312 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Batrider
Batrideraik
49% · 271 game47% · 447 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
53% · 90 games57% · 68 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 69%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3