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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
yamich · 31 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallis · 25 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 23 games
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 23 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MidOne · 17 games
35%

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
Q · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 14 games
57%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 13 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
617 picks · 441 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
552 picks · 317 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 377 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
405 picks · 589 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
383 picks · 428 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 498 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 629 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 373 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:34
MOUZ 46%Team Nemesis 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:03:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMidOne
56% · 141 game56% · 73 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
little data42% · 250 games
Tinyrubikon155
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
47% · 188 games46% · 50 games
Dark SeerJabz
Dark Seer
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
50% · 221 game49% · 123 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirityamich
55% · 68 games51% · 122 games
BaneYamSun
Bane
Game 2prediction missed35:24
MOUZ 50%Team Nemesis 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMidOne
52% · 193 games50% · 431 game
Windrangerrubikon155
Windranger
Razor
RazorCrystallis
60% · 70 games54% · 70 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
48% · 187 games50% · 121 game
EnigmaJabz
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanto
56% · 226 games45% · 60 games
Winter WyvernYamSun
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 275 games41% · 269 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2