FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 22 games
Tusk
yamich · 22 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 15 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
BOOM · 13 games
Team Yandex
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 7 games
Doomoften banned
TA2000 · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
Bane
prblms · 6 games
Batridersignature
prblms · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
464 picks · 238 bans
Disruptor
458 picks · 443 bans
Puck
357 picks · 947 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 370 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 226 bans
Batrider
288 picks · 648 bans
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
MOUZ 59%Team Yandex 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCrystallis
Anti-MageWatson
Puckxn丶e
DawnbreakerNoticed
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
MarsBOOM
DisruptorMalady
Pudgeyamich
Alchemistprblms
Game 2prediction missed19:41
MOUZ 59%Team Yandex 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallis
PuckChira JUNIOR
TimbersawBOOM
DoomWatson
Sand Kingxn丶e
MarsNoticed
SnapfireSeleri
ChenMalady
Tuskyamich
Alchemistprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2